中方不买大豆，美方开始自救，特朗普犯下大忌，王毅将奔赴欧洲

Core Insights - The current harvest season in the U.S. has led to a surplus of soybeans, with American farmers facing anxiety due to a lack of orders from China, prompting the Trump administration to seek solutions [1][3] Group 1: Government Response - The Trump administration is considering using $10 billion to $14 billion in funds to subsidize struggling farmers, sourced from tariff revenues, which were originally paid by American consumers [3] - Trump's focus on agricultural states as key voter bases drives his urgency to implement subsidy policies and promises to address soybean export issues in upcoming meetings with China [3][9] Group 2: China's Strategy - China's decision to not purchase U.S. soybeans is based on rational considerations, as it diversifies its supply sources by increasing imports from Brazil and Argentina, thus stabilizing its soybean supply [5][8] - The Chinese government has invested in infrastructure improvements and expanded its storage systems to reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans, making it less vulnerable to U.S. trade policies [5][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that there have been zero orders for U.S. soybeans from China since the start of the new sales season, marking the first occurrence of "zero orders" since 1999 [7] - Last year, China accounted for approximately $12 billion of U.S. soybean exports, representing half of the total exports, highlighting the significant market loss for American farmers [7] Group 4: Political Implications - The soybean issue reflects broader U.S.-China relations, where the agricultural economy's fluctuations directly impact political outcomes, particularly for Trump [9][12] - Trump's reliance on outdated trade war tactics, such as tariffs and subsidies, may not effectively address the underlying issues, as China has adapted its strategies to counter U.S. pressures [9][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing negotiations and upcoming APEC meetings may provide further clarity, but China is unlikely to change its stance easily, having transitioned from a passive trade dependent to an active market leader [11][12] - The soybean situation serves as a catalyst for broader changes in global supply chains and political-economic dynamics, indicating a shift in the rules of engagement in international trade [12]