Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-07 06:04Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historic highs, with New York futures hitting $4000 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3980 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and a shift in central bank reserve strategies towards gold [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 7, New York futures reached $4000 per ounce, marking a historic high, although prices later retreated slightly while remaining volatile at elevated levels [1]. - Analysts attribute the rise in commodity prices, including gold, to macroeconomic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and sustained demand for "hard" assets [1]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300, anticipating continued central bank purchases [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. - A significant shift in global reserve asset allocation is noted, with gold's share in central bank reserves surpassing that of U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, indicating a strategic move towards physical assets [2]. - UBS forecasts that central bank demand for gold will remain robust, estimating a demand of 900 to 950 tons in 2025, supported by a survey indicating that 95% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Strong inflows into gold ETFs have been observed, exceeding previous model predictions, indicating heightened interest from private investors [3]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for private investment in gold presents significant upside risks to price forecasts, with expectations for gold to reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3].