高盛谈铜价：10000美元已成“新底线”，未来两年11000美元是上限

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices are resetting to a new price range, with a strong demand in key sectors and structural supply constraints pushing the price floor to $10,000 per ton [1][2] - The price ceiling is identified at $11,000 per ton due to short-term market oversupply and potential increases in scrap copper supply [1][2] Supply Constraints - Structural challenges in the supply chain are supporting the price floor of $10,000 per ton [3] - Mining difficulties are increasing, leading to higher sustaining capital expenditures, which limits growth in capital spending by mining companies [5] - Global copper supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of only 1.5% from 2025 to 2030 [5] Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper is shifting from cyclical to strategic, driven by national security and strategic industries [7] - Key drivers of demand growth include electric grid and power infrastructure, contributing over 60% of the increase, alongside electric vehicles and renewable energy [9] Strategic Reserves - Strategic reserves are seen as a key factor in supporting prices, with potential demand from China and the U.S. to absorb excess supply [6][9] - China may need to increase its strategic reserves by approximately 150,000 tons by 2030, while the U.S. could establish a copper reserve costing around $1.8 billion [9] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,000 to $10,500 per ton, maintaining a forecast of $10,750 for 2027 [1][2] - The market is expected to remain in a slight oversupply until 2026, with a projected surplus of 180,000 tons [2]