10月7日【油价大降】一夜升温，原油“4连降”大降超8%以后“又上涨”，新周期第7个工作日中，汽柴油预估上涨85元/吨！

Core Viewpoint - The oil price adjustment is experiencing volatility, with expectations of a potential halt in price increases for gasoline and diesel, marking the seventh time this year that prices may remain unchanged [1][3][7] Historical Context of Oil Prices - The last adjustment, which was the 19th of the year, began with a negative change rate for crude oil, but prices rose to 40 yuan/ton during the cycle. Ultimately, the prices fell again, leading to the sixth halt in adjustments for gasoline and diesel in September [3] - As of now, gasoline prices at gas stations are at the levels from the end of August, with 92 gasoline priced at 7.08 yuan/liter and 95 gasoline at 7.59 yuan/liter, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.32 to 0.36 yuan/liter compared to the end of 2024 [3] Latest Oil Price Developments - As of October 7, 2025, the 20th price adjustment is still pending, with the first six working days of the pricing cycle showing no changes. The average crude oil price is reported at $66.91 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.62%, indicating a forecasted increase of 140 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to an expected rise of about 0.13 yuan/liter [3][5] - On the sixth working day of the current cycle, the increase in gasoline and diesel prices was reduced by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The upcoming seventh working day on October 9 is expected to show a significant fluctuation in crude oil prices [5] Future Outlook - The trajectory of crude oil prices in the coming days will significantly influence the post-holiday price adjustments for gasoline and diesel. Despite a recent uptick in oil prices, concerns about the global economic outlook and rising U.S. oil inventories may exert downward pressure on international oil prices [7] - If crude oil prices continue to decline, the final adjustment for the current cycle may see gasoline and diesel prices increase by only 10 to 20 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential halt in price increases [7]