政府关门“炸出”惊天数据？凯雷：美就业市场已接近衰退

Group 1 - Carlyle Group released a "bleak interpretation" of the U.S. labor market to fill the economic data void left by the government shutdown [1] - The estimated increase in non-farm employment for September is only 17,000 jobs, significantly lower than the economist survey's expectation of 54,000 jobs [1] - Carlyle has been calculating its own estimates for U.S. GDP, consumer spending, and inflation for over a decade to serve as timely alternative indicators during data delays [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year in response to signs of weakness in the labor market, despite inflation remaining above its long-term target [2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau surveys approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies for the monthly employment report, while private employment data sources have larger sample sizes [2] - ADP Research reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, raising concerns among markets and economists [2]