IEA下调美国可再生能源增幅预测50%，全球增长仍强劲

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced the U.S. renewable energy growth forecast by 50% due to recent policy changes by the Trump administration, projecting an additional capacity of nearly 250 GW from 2025 to 2030, down from the previous estimate of 500 GW [1] - Key policy changes affecting the forecast include the gradual phase-out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, a pause on offshore wind project leasing approvals, and limitations on permitting for onshore wind and solar projects on federal land [1] - The IEA emphasizes that since its introduction in 1992, tax credits have been a core driver of renewable energy development in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The IEA has also lowered the global renewable energy growth forecast by 5%, primarily due to policy adjustments in the U.S. and China [2] - In China, the shift from a long-term fixed price subsidy policy to a market-based auction system introduces uncertainty, which may impact global renewable energy capacity growth [2] - The previous policy framework allowed wind and solar projects to benefit from stable returns based on coal price benchmarks for 15 to 20 years, while the new policy aims to promote market-driven growth and integration with the grid [2] Group 3 - The IEA predicts that the policy changes will slow the growth rate of wind and solar installations in China in the second half of 2025, but China is still expected to contribute nearly 60% of the global renewable energy capacity increase [3] - China's wind and solar installation targets are anticipated to be achieved five years ahead of the established timeline for 2035 [3]