现货金价十日内连破两大关口，3900美元历史新高背后的“三重引擎”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3920 per ounce, is driven by multiple favorable factors, marking gold as one of the best-performing assets of 2025 with an increase of over 48% year-to-date [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak economic data from the U.S., including a decline in job openings and an increase in unemployment claims, has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown due to the failure to pass a funding bill has contributed to rising global risk aversion, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Global Demand for Gold - The share of the U.S. dollar in global central bank reserves has decreased from 60% in 2000 to 43% in 2024, with several countries, including China and India, increasing their gold holdings, indicating a fundamental shift in global gold demand [5]. - Domestic gold brands have rapidly adjusted their prices in response to international gold price movements, with significant increases in retail prices for gold jewelry [5]. Group 3: Market Predictions - UBS predicts that gold prices could reach between $3900 and $4200 by mid-2026, while Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, suggesting a potential challenge to the $4000 mark [7]. - Experts advise investors to adopt a cautious approach, recommending a strategic allocation of around 5% of their portfolio to gold to hedge against inflation and market volatility [7]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The current gold bull market signifies not just a price increase but also a profound restructuring of the global monetary system and economic landscape, suggesting that the narrative surrounding gold is just beginning [9].