四川高端酒市场调研：宴席回暖难掩行业深度调整

Core Insights - The high-end liquor market in Sichuan is experiencing significant challenges, with cautious inventory management and a decline in sales expected during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 20-30% [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Adjustment - The liquor industry has shifted from a "volume decrease, price increase" growth model to a "volume and price decline" phase, with total production down 5.8% and total profits down 10.93% in the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - Inventory pressure is identified as the most severe challenge, stemming from structural contradictions due to long-term rough development, including a disconnect between capacity expansion and market demand [2][3]. - Over-reliance on a stockpiling growth model has exacerbated the crisis, leading to a "backwater effect" in channel inventory and a vicious cycle of price inversion [3][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price inversion situation has worsened, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range, which accounts for 32% of products experiencing inversion [3][5]. - The market price of high-end products like Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped, with prices falling below 1800 yuan per bottle, indicating deeper issues in the high-end liquor market [5][6]. - The traditional sales model is failing, forcing liquor merchants to transition to a more active sales approach, but high marketing costs and fragmented channels complicate this transition [6][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - The consumer base for high-end liquor is undergoing a profound transformation, with traditional customers from the infrastructure sector decreasing from over 30% to around 10% [9][11]. - There is a notable increase in gatherings among retirees, with events like retirement parties and anniversaries becoming new growth points for liquor consumption, reflecting the impact of China's aging population [9][11]. - The market is expected to continue evolving towards a more rational consumption model, with a focus on quality over quantity, as the saying "drink less, drink better" becomes a reality [11].