10月历来是变盘之月，今年可能也不例外、做好准备，迎接波动，把握机会

Market Overview - The average volatility of the A-share market in October over the past 20 years is 12.3%, second only to April [1] - Historical events show significant fluctuations, such as a 24.63% drop in October 2008 and a 10.8% rebound in October 2015 [1] Recent Performance - In September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 6.54%, and the ChiNext Index by 12.04% [3] Market Sentiment - The probability of A-shares rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 70%, attributed to the normal return of funds post-holiday [5] - Analysts from various brokerages express optimism for October, with expectations of a new upward trend [5] Earnings Reports - The period from October 15 to 31 is critical for listed companies to report their earnings, which will significantly impact market performance [5] - Companies with strong earnings will be rewarded, while those with disappointing results may face declines [6] Policy Influence - The 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session is scheduled for October 20-23, which may introduce new policies affecting market sectors [6] - Keywords like new productive forces, AI, and biomanufacturing could ignite interest in specific sectors [6] Global Economic Factors - There is a 98% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October, which is seen as a positive for A-shares [7] - The arrival of a global liquidity turning point is expected to benefit the A-share market [8] Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that sectors such as banking, home appliances, machinery, and electronics have over a 60% rise rate in October, while coal and non-ferrous metals are less favorable [8] - The TMT sector is currently favored, with companies like SMIC benefiting from AI chip demand [10][11] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a neutral position of 60% in early October, focusing on stocks with expected earnings growth [13] - Adjustments to positions should be made based on policy signals and market performance throughout the month [13] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in early October, policy themes in mid-October, and performance-driven differentiation towards the end of the month [16] - Historical patterns suggest that the first trading day after the holiday can set the tone for the month [16] Fundamental Focus - The core factors influencing market direction include earnings reports, policy changes, and capital flows [17] - Investors are encouraged to remain calm and focus on long-term value rather than short-term volatility [18]