【环球财经】高盛最新报告“看多”德国经济增长前景

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has become more optimistic about Germany's economic growth prospects, forecasting a growth of 0.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, compared to previous expectations before the German elections in February this year [1] - The German government plans to increase spending by approximately €45 billion (1% of GDP) in 2025 and over €80 billion (1.8% of GDP) in 2026, with infrastructure spending increasing by €25 billion, defense spending by €40 billion, and social spending by €26 billion by 2026 [1] - The fiscal expansion policy is expected to be implemented relatively quickly, with defense spending benefiting German manufacturers and potentially generating a multiplier effect of up to 0.6 [1] Group 2 - Confidence in Germany's manufacturing and construction sectors has improved, with expectations of gradual recovery in manufacturing; however, structural headwinds persist, including high energy prices, declining competitiveness, reduced labor supply, and intense competition from overseas markets [2] - The German economy is projected to shrink by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.2% in 2024, with a joint economic forecast from five major economic research institutions predicting only a 0.2% growth in 2025; however, growth is expected to rise to 1.3% and 1.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven by expansionary fiscal policies [2] - The growth outlook for the German economy is constrained by high energy and labor costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and declining competitiveness due to a lack of structural reforms [2]