Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is showing strong bullish momentum, with expectations of reaching and potentially exceeding the $4000 mark, driven by various favorable factors that have not shown signs of weakening [1][5]. Market Performance - On October 7, gold opened at $3960.15 per ounce, fluctuated, and eventually closed at $3984.30, marking a daily increase of $24.15 or 0.61% [1]. - The price reached a daily low of $3940.72 and a high of $3990.62, with a total daily fluctuation of $49.9 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index showed strength, but gold prices rebounded due to support buying, despite initial pressure from economic data and Federal Reserve officials' comments [3]. - The World Trade Organization significantly downgraded its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026, contributing to market uncertainty and increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Recent data indicated a rise in inflation expectations, which initially pressured gold prices but subsequently led to a rebound, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven amid economic uncertainty [5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is exacerbating market fears, potentially impacting employment data and GDP, which may lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Historical Context - The current market conditions are reminiscent of the 1970s, where high inflation and economic instability led to a significant rise in gold prices, which increased from $35 to $850 per ounce, a 2329% increase [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently bounced back from key support levels, indicating a strong bullish trend, with the potential to reach higher targets [7][9]. - The price remains above the 5-day moving average and other support levels, suggesting that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [9]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3977 or $3955 and resistance at $4015 or $4050 for gold [10].
张尧浠：利好因素仍未显疲态、金价多头前景或超预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-08 01:42