BUD APAC(HK:01876) 智通财经网·2025-10-08 01:47Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward revision of Budweiser APAC's (01876) EBITDA and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 5-7% and 5-9% respectively, reflecting recent weak performance. The target price is adjusted to HKD 9.50 while maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on its Q3 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.4% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to decrease by 14.4%, and adjusted net profit is expected to be USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [2] - The core pressure is attributed to weak performance in the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements. The current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, and a dividend yield exceeding 5% is expected to support the stock price [2] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia Pacific West region, the ready-to-drink channel in mainland China is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms. The company is expected to see a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline in this region, with significant declines in both volume and average price. Despite a trend towards premiumization in non-ready-to-drink channels, adverse changes in channel mix and promotional activities are expected to negatively impact average prices [3] - The company has proactively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, and inventory management is reported to be good, providing support for future recovery. A marginal recovery is anticipated in Q4, while the Indian market is expected to continue its growth momentum from the first half of the year, contributing to improved EBITDA margins [3] - In the Asia Pacific East region, performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue declines influenced by exchange rates. Volume is projected to decrease in low single digits, while average prices are expected to grow in mid-single digits, leading to a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA. Brand and channel optimization, along with recent price increases, are expected to support average price performance [4]