东南亚研究 | 美联储降息周期下的港股再审视

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut on September 18, 2024, is set against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, including risks of stagflation in the U.S. and misalignment in the economic cycles of China and the U.S., suggesting that the Hong Kong stock market may not replicate historical trends but instead exhibit significant structural differentiation [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Historical experience indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, the Hong Kong stock market typically shows a "preventive rate cut rally" or a "recessionary rate cut decline" pattern [1]. - In terms of market style, the Hang Seng Technology Index has demonstrated a "high win rate and high return" characteristic during preventive rate cut cycles, while other styles have not shown independent trends [1][2]. - Industry-wise, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples tend to perform better during recessionary rate cuts, while high-growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals excel during preventive rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - The current macroeconomic environment is more complex than historical experiences, with the U.S. economy facing stagflation risks and ongoing misalignment with China's economic cycle, making it difficult for the Hong Kong market to follow a straightforward trend [2][3]. - The upcoming October monetary policy meeting is crucial for assessing the future pace and intensity of rate cuts, influenced by various structural variables, including political pressures and the ongoing AI industry revolution [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Scenarios - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the next one to two quarters will depend not only on the Fed's rate cut path but also on the recovery process of the Chinese economy [2][52]. - Three potential scenarios are outlined: 1. Baseline Scenario: Gradual Fed rate cuts with a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, favoring growth-sensitive sectors [52][53]. 2. Optimistic Scenario: More aggressive Fed cuts without triggering recession fears, leading to a favorable liquidity environment for growth stocks [55]. 3. Pessimistic Scenario: Fed pauses or slows rate cuts due to persistent inflation, putting pressure on the Hong Kong market, which will depend heavily on the recovery of the Chinese economy [56]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - The analysis indicates that different types of rate cut cycles lead to distinct long-term performances in the Hong Kong market, with preventive rate cuts generally resulting in positive returns for the Hang Seng Index [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown superior performance during preventive rate cuts, benefiting from lower discount rates and improved financing conditions [12][13]. - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during recessionary rate cuts, while growth sectors thrive in preventive cut environments, highlighting the importance of sector selection in investment strategies [13][14].