现货黄金历史性突破4000美元大关，年内涨幅超50%

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has historically surpassed the $4000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, a pullback in tech stocks, and global political uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid escalating global economic and geopolitical risks, with gold prices soaring over 50% this year [4]. - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily catalyzed by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data and increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4][5]. - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, which typically enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [5]. Group 2: Global Political Factors - Political turmoil in various regions, including France and Japan, has intensified concerns over fiscal risks, further boosting demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6]. - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire and the potential leadership change in Japan have contributed to market uncertainty, prompting increased investment in gold [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The narratives of "de-dollarization" and "de-globalization" are providing structural support for the long-term rise in gold prices, as global investors shift from the dollar to safe-haven assets [7]. - Strong institutional demand is a significant characteristic of the current bull market, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, actively increasing their gold reserves [8]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts caution about potential short-term pullbacks due to the rapid pace of price increases, suggesting that profit-taking may occur [9]. - More strategists recommend that investors increase their gold allocation to hedge against dollar risks and prepare for future market shocks, with a suggested allocation of around 5% [9].