“红娘经济”的代价，米连科技能否撑起情感社交IPO？

Core Viewpoint - 米连科技, a leading online emotional social platform in China, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing impressive financial performance and a unique business model, but faces challenges related to revenue concentration and compliance issues [1][9]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, 米连科技's revenue is projected to grow from 1.052 billion RMB to 2.373 billion RMB, with a remarkable growth rate of 129.5% from 2023 to 2024 [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.917 billion RMB, indicating a potential milestone for the full year [2]. - 米连科技 transitioned from losses in 2022 and 2023 to a net profit of 146 million RMB in 2024, with further growth to 262 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [2]. User Engagement and Business Model - The flagship product, 伊对, employs a "host user-guided three-party video interaction model," addressing social interaction challenges in lower-tier cities [2]. - Key operational metrics show 伊对 leading the online emotional social industry in China, with monthly active users averaging 8.0 hours of usage, a 72.1% seven-day retention rate, and 119.6 monthly activations [3]. - Revenue is primarily derived from value-added services, particularly from users gifting virtual items during social interactions [3]. Market Potential - The global online emotional social market is expected to grow from 49.9 billion RMB in 2024 to 155.9 billion RMB by 2029, with the Chinese market projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB [6]. Compliance and Operational Risks - 米连科技's business model has raised compliance concerns, particularly regarding the "host user-guided" mechanism, which may lead to consumer inducement risks [7]. - The company faces numerous complaints related to "induced consumption" and "false matchmaking," which could impact its reputation and user trust [7]. - Regulatory scrutiny in areas such as virtual gifting and user privacy may pose structural challenges to the company's operations [8]. Revenue Concentration - 米连科技's revenue is highly concentrated in its core products, 伊对 and 贴贴, which may expose the company to significant risks if market conditions change [8].