现货黄金涨破4000美元大关，国内金饰克价突破1160元

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have surged due to factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis, increased market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical conflicts globally [5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with forecasts from Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices to rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, up from a previous estimate of $4,300 [5]. - UBS has also released a report indicating a bullish outlook for the gold market, expecting prices to reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [5]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, reporting a total of 74.06 million ounces as of the end of September, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [7]. - The pace of gold reserve increases by the central bank has slowed, with September's increase being the lowest since November 2024, reflecting a balance between optimizing reserve structure and controlling acquisition costs [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Experts suggest that gold should be viewed as a long-term investment and a hedge against inflation, recommending a portfolio allocation of about 5% to 10% in gold for balanced investors [6]. - The average annual return rate for gold since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system is approximately 8%, indicating its potential as a reliable investment tool over the long term [6].