外网:中国不买矿，就不怕土澳就自己炼钢吗？

Core Viewpoint - Australia's ability to independently produce steel is severely limited despite holding 35% of the world's iron ore reserves, as it still imports 30% of its steel due to technological, financial, and market constraints [1][3]. Technological Constraints - China's steel industry has developed advanced technologies over 70 years, achieving a converter steel yield rate of 99.2% at Baowu Steel, while Australia's largest steel company, BlueScope, relies on outdated 1980s technology with an annual crude steel output of only 5 million tons [3]. - The lack of a complete domestic supply chain is evident, as Green Steel's $1.6 billion investment in a low-carbon steel plant requires importing core equipment from Italy, and local refractory material production is non-existent [3]. Financial Constraints - The capital requirements for steel production are substantial; building a 10 million ton steel plant in China costs over $20 billion, while Australia's flagship green steel project has a total investment of only $1.6 billion with a capacity of less than 2 million tons [3]. - Capital allocation favors higher returns in iron ore mining, with BHP divesting its steel business to invest in iron ore, which has a return rate of 30%, compared to the global average profit margin of 5.8% in the steel industry [3]. Market Limitations - China's population of 1.4 billion supports a steel demand of 1 billion tons, while Australia's 25 million people only account for a consumption of 9 million tons, leading to market monopolization by BlueScope, which controls 75% of the construction steel market [4]. - Exporting steel from Australia is economically unfeasible due to high shipping costs, which are $40 per ton more to Southeast Asia compared to China, where steel export prices have dropped to $600 per ton [4]. - Additional challenges include high labor costs, which are 2.4 times higher than in China, and significant water consumption requirements for steel production, which are difficult to meet in Australia's arid regions [4].