世贸组织发布最新《全球贸易展望报告》大幅上调2025年全球货物贸易增长预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite strong headwinds from unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainties, global trade shows resilience due to the stability provided by the multilateral trading system and appropriate responses from members to tariff changes [1] Group 2 - The latest Global Trade Outlook Report indicates a significant year-on-year increase of 4.9% in global trade volume in the first half of 2025, driven by factors such as preemptive imports in the U.S. due to anticipated tariff hikes, improved macroeconomic conditions, and a surge in demand for artificial intelligence products [3] - The World Trade Organization has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% in August to 2.4% [3] Group 3 - However, the report also indicates a substantial downward adjustment of the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026, from an earlier prediction of 1.8% to only 0.5%, due to global economic cooling and the full impact of higher tariffs becoming evident over the year [4] - In terms of service trade, while not directly affected by tariffs, it may still face indirect impacts through its association with goods trade and output, with global service export growth expected to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026 [4]