巨亏450亿美元，美国农民眼巴巴等待特朗普政府救济

Core Viewpoint - The adverse effects of Trump's tariff policy are leading to significant financial losses for American farmers, with potential losses estimated at $45 billion due to plummeting exports to China and rising costs for fertilizers and machinery [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Farmers - U.S. soybean exports to China have decreased by $2.5 billion compared to the previous year, with no purchases made since May [1]. - If the current trend continues, U.S. soybean exports to China could drop by $10 billion this year [1]. - The decline in sorghum exports is even more severe, with a 97% drop from last year's $1.3 billion [1]. - Republican lawmakers estimate that farmers may require up to $50 billion in economic support, significantly exceeding the aid provided in 2018 [4]. - The total losses for U.S. farmers across nine major crops are projected to reach $45 billion this year, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton accounting for the majority of these losses [5]. Group 2: Government Response and Support - The Trump administration is expected to announce a new economic support plan for farmers, although the specifics and scale of the aid remain unclear [1][2]. - The previous fund established for agricultural support has been depleted, and the source of funding for the new aid is uncertain [4]. - Farmers express a need for immediate assistance, with some indicating that government aid is a temporary solution, and many may still face bankruptcy [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The U.S. is attempting to diversify its soybean export markets to countries like Mexico, the EU, Japan, and Indonesia, but the scale of the Chinese market makes it challenging to find immediate alternatives [8]. - There are ongoing discussions about potential trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, but industry representatives believe that any agreements may come too late to benefit many farmers [9]. - Long-term prospects for U.S. soybean exports to China appear bleak, as China shifts its sourcing to Latin American suppliers and emphasizes self-sufficiency [10].