64岁安倍铁粉上台！日股创新高，日元却暴跌，日本经济要崩盘？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market surged following the election of Kishi Mako as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, driven by expectations of continued fiscal spending and monetary easing under her leadership [1][3][19] Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 4.8% and the Topix index increased by 3.1%, both reaching historical highs [1] - The market's enthusiasm is attributed to the belief that Kishi will maintain expansive fiscal policies, as investors seek returns in the stock market due to limited alternatives [3][19] Currency and Bond Market Impact - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.5% against the US dollar, nearing the critical psychological level of 150, and hit a historical low against the euro [5] - Predictions from major institutions suggest the yen could further weaken to the 150-160 range [5] - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to 3.29%, a record high, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 14 basis points to 3.52% [5] Economic Concerns - The depreciation of the yen poses a dual challenge for Japan, as it increases import costs for a resource-poor nation, leading to higher living expenses for citizens [7][8] - Kishi's economic policies lack clarity, particularly regarding funding for subsidies to combat rising prices [13] Political Landscape - Kishi's election reflects a preference for stability over change, but her political foundation is precarious due to the tarnished reputation of the Abe faction [15][19] - The upcoming challenges include managing inflation while attempting to stimulate the economy, creating a potential policy dilemma [17][19] Market Sustainability - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the stock market rally, suggesting it may be a short-term emotional response rather than a reflection of long-term economic improvement [17] - The core contradiction Kishi faces is the need for fiscal stimulus amidst rising inflation, which could lead to a cycle of economic stagnation [17][19]