世贸组织大幅上调2025年全球货物贸易增长预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite strong headwinds from unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainties, global trade shows resilience due to the stability provided by the multilateral trading system and appropriate responses from members to tariff changes [1] Group 2 - The latest Global Trade Outlook Report indicates that global trade volume is expected to grow significantly by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by factors such as "stockpiling" in the U.S. due to anticipated tariff increases, improved macroeconomic conditions, and surging demand for artificial intelligence products [3] - The World Trade Organization has revised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2025 from 0.9% in August to 2.4% [3] Group 3 - However, the report also states that with a cooling global economy and the full impact of higher tariffs expected to manifest over the next year, the trade growth outlook for 2026 is not optimistic, with the forecast revised down from 1.8% to only 0.5% [5] Group 4 - In terms of service trade, while not directly affected by tariffs, it may still face indirect impacts through its association with goods trade and output. The report predicts that global service export growth will decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026 [7]