国际金价持续冲高突破4000美元！黄金股ETF年内累计涨超80%

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged, with London gold exceeding $4000 per ounce, marking a historical high, and COMEX gold also reaching similar levels, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 8, London gold reached a peak of $4040.41 per ounce, while COMEX gold hit $4062.6 per ounce, both breaking previous records [3]. - The rise from $3000 to $4000 occurred within just six months, indicating a rapid increase in gold prices [3]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce in the medium to long term, with a short-term key resistance level identified at $4200 per ounce [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has led to increased market speculation, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in October [3]. - Concerns over the U.S. government's shutdown have raised fears regarding the dollar's credit system, prompting a shift of investment towards gold [3]. - Geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts continue to drive safe-haven investments into gold, further supporting price increases [3]. Group 3: Performance of Gold Funds - As of the end of Q3, the average return of 51 gold funds was 39.99%, with 31 funds exceeding a 40% increase [4]. - Gold stock ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with all six tracked ETFs achieving over 80% returns, led by Yongying Gold Stock ETF at 86.73% [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The increasing scale of dollar issuance and rising U.S. government debt are expected to undermine global confidence in the dollar, thereby boosting gold's appeal as a hard currency [4]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could eventually surpass $5000 or even $10,000 per ounce, driven by growing demand from various investors, including central banks [5].