俄罗斯面临严重燃油短缺，要从中国进口汽油！拿错剧本了吧？

Core Insights - Russia, once controlling 9.3% of global refined oil exports, is facing an unprecedented fuel crisis, leading to plans for gasoline imports from China and temporary tax exemptions on these imports to address the growing domestic supply gap [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Ukrainian Drone Strikes - Continuous drone attacks from Ukraine and Western sanctions have severely impacted Russia's energy sector, with 21 out of 38 refineries targeted since August 2025 [3]. - In September, four major refineries were forced to halt production, including the second-largest refinery in Russia, resulting in a 40% reduction in refining capacity and a daily loss of 33.8 thousand tons of refined oil [3][5]. - The gasoline production in Russia decreased by 1 million tons in September, creating a domestic market shortfall of 20% of consumption [3][5]. Group 2: Government Response and Import Strategy - The Russian government has proposed eliminating a 5% import tariff and a 13% VAT on gasoline from China, which could add 350 thousand tons of gasoline supply monthly [5]. - The strategy includes utilizing the China-Europe Railway Express to mitigate risks associated with transportation, marking a shift from traditional "crude for products" exchanges to a more flexible two-way supply model [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Long-term Implications - Importing gasoline is a temporary solution, as the 20-day shipping time and inland transport costs diminish the effectiveness of the tax exemptions [7]. - Fuel shortages are reported in over 20 regions in Russia, with oil prices rising by 45% since the beginning of the year, exacerbating the situation as winter approaches [7][9]. - The reliance on external supplies threatens Russia's economic stability and geopolitical strategy, highlighting the increasing importance of Eastern markets in this context [9].