美联储重启降息，对全球经济金融格局有何影响？

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, following three cuts in 2024, is primarily a response to a weak labor market, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August 2025 and an unemployment rate of 2.9% [2] - The current economic environment presents a rare combination of weak labor markets and rising inflation, challenging traditional monetary policy frameworks [2][3] - The credibility of statistical data, particularly employment figures, is under scrutiny, with significant downward revisions indicating that 51% of previously reported jobs may not exist [3][4] Group 1 - The traditional monetary policy framework is facing theoretical challenges, as the simultaneous occurrence of labor market weakness and inflation contradicts established economic theories [2] - The U.S. economy is experiencing "stagflation" and stock market bubble risks, with the S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio reaching 38.4, the second highest historically, raising concerns about potential market corrections if inflation necessitates future rate hikes [3][8] - The decline in the reliability of employment data is undermining the Federal Reserve's decision-making foundation, as the accuracy of labor statistics is increasingly questioned [3][5] Group 2 - Political appointments are threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the appointment of Milan by President Trump symbolizing a significant challenge to the traditional separation of central bank personnel from political influence [5][6] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are weakening the effectiveness of policy communication, as differing views on future monetary policy paths among decision-makers create uncertainty [6][7] - The unpredictability of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path is expected to increase, complicating market participants' ability to gauge policy intentions and potentially leading to heightened financial market volatility [7][8] Group 3 - The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a downward spiral, where political interference increases in response to perceived policy failures, further undermining the central bank's authority [7][8] - The credibility of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar as a global reserve currency may face systemic challenges if confidence in the Federal Reserve's stability and independence diminishes [8]