“现在就像70年代！” 达利欧：买更多黄金

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio suggests that investors should allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, likening the current economic environment to the 1970s when inflation and government debt were high, making gold a superior hedge compared to the dollar [2][9]. Group 1: Gold Investment - Dalio emphasizes that gold is an excellent diversification asset, especially when traditional assets underperform [3][9]. - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching approximately $4,000 per ounce, with futures hitting $4,071 [3][6]. - Dalio argues that in the current economic climate, characterized by rising government debt and geopolitical tensions, gold serves as a strong store of value [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. fiscal deficit is widening, and global tensions are escalating, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [6]. - The dollar has weakened against all major currencies, experiencing its largest depreciation since the 1970s, following uncertainties triggered by former President Trump's policies [6][9]. - Dalio compares the current situation to the early 1970s, when high inflation and significant government spending led to a loss of confidence in paper assets and fiat currencies [9]. Group 3: Technology and AI Concerns - Dalio expresses caution regarding the recent surge in U.S. stock prices, suggesting that speculation around artificial intelligence (AI) exhibits typical bubble characteristics [10]. - Despite concerns about valuations, Dalio sees opportunities in companies leveraging AI for efficiency and those providing AI platforms [10]. - He refrains from shorting large tech companies, indicating a cautious but optimistic stance on the sector [10]. Group 4: Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900, citing continued inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases [11]. - Some analysts suggest that while gold is a strong investment, there may be short-term pullback risks due to the rapid price increase [11].