降息50个基点！刚刚，直线大跳水！

Core Points - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 25 basis point reduction [1][2] - The New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the US dollar, with an intraday drop of over 1%, reaching its lowest level since mid-April [1][2] Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to lower the rate was based on discussions between two viewpoints: one supporting a 25 basis point cut due to signs of economic recovery, and the other advocating for a 50 basis point cut to address ongoing economic weakness and support consumption [3] - The Reserve Bank emphasized the need for flexibility in policy to ensure inflation remains stable around the 2% target [3] Economic Outlook - The monetary policy committee expects economic activity to remain weak until mid-2025, with inflation pressures anticipated to ease [4] - The annual CPI inflation is projected to approach the target midpoint in the first half of next year, with overall inflation expected to reach 3.0% by the third quarter of 2025 [4] Impact on Financial Markets - Following the rate cut, New Zealand bond yields fell across the board, with the 2-year government bond yield dropping by 7 basis points to 2.64% [2] - The New Zealand dollar has been the worst-performing G10 currency against the US dollar over the past 12 months, with a cumulative decline of 5.7% [2] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank noted that global trade and economic activity have shown resilience, with growth expectations for several trading partners being revised upward due to investments in AI and adjustments to new tariff environments [5] - Despite the overall inflation in the US rising, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than expected, with no substantial evidence of tariffs affecting New Zealand's import and export prices [5]