贵金属狂飙！金价突破4000美元，白银迫近50美元大关

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic moment, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by a combination of risk aversion, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 8, 2025, spot gold prices reached a record high of over $4000 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the precious metals market [2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by more than 52%, translating to an approximate rise of $1400 per ounce [2]. - The New York futures market saw gold prices touch $4010 per ounce, indicating a new phase for the precious metals market [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have also surged, nearing $48 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 67%, outperforming gold [2]. - The World Silver Association projects a global silver supply-demand gap of 120 million ounces by 2025, a historical record [4][8]. - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed 50% of total demand, with the photovoltaic industry being a key growth driver [4][5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are expected to maintain strong demand for gold, with annual demand projected between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, slightly below last year's record levels [2]. - Notable central bank activities include Poland's central bank increasing its gold holdings by 67 tons and China's central bank maintaining a consistent increase in gold reserves [2]. Group 4: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP loss of $15 billion per week [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the political crisis in France and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened global risk aversion, benefiting gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising, with a 97% probability of a cut in October and 88% in December, making gold more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major financial institutions have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce [7]. - HSBC has adjusted its silver price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $38.56 and $44.5 per ounce, respectively [11]. - UBS has also raised its silver price predictions to $52 and $55 per ounce, reflecting a strong outlook for the silver market [12].