美最新研究：如果没有AI数据中心，美国上半年GDP增长仅为0.1%

Core Insights - A study by Harvard economist Jason Furman indicates that nearly all GDP growth in the U.S. during the first half of 2025 will be driven by data centers and information processing technologies, with other sectors showing a mere 0.1% growth [1][4] - Concerns are rising over a potential "data center bubble," as the sustainability of the business model for tech giants expanding data centers remains unproven [1][7] - Investment in information processing equipment and software accounted for only 4% of GDP but contributed 92% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [1][4] Investment Trends - Major tech companies have significantly increased capital expenditures in data centers, with spending quadrupling in recent years to nearly $400 billion annually [4] - The top 10 companies account for about one-third of total spending related to data centers, contributing approximately 100 basis points to actual GDP growth [4] - Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia have invested hundreds of billions in building and upgrading data centers due to explosive demand for computing power driven by AI technologies [4][7] Economic Implications - While tech-driven growth is evident, other sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, retail, and services are experiencing stagnation or negative growth, raising fears of an economic downturn without tech investment [5] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and a rising long-term unemployment rate [5] - Some analysts suggest that the strong spending data may not correlate directly with the growth in GDP attributed to data center construction, indicating a complex economic landscape [5] Infrastructure Development - By the end of 2024, the U.S. is expected to have 1,240 data centers, a fourfold increase since 2010, with major companies projected to spend $320 billion on AI infrastructure this year [7] - The demand for data centers is closely linked to the training of large language models, which require vast amounts of data and computing power [7] - Companies are raising funds through various channels to support data center expansions, with Oracle issuing $18 billion in bonds and Meta securing $29 billion in financing for new projects [7]