AIl in AI？“没了数据中心，美国经济增长几乎归零”

Core Insights - A study by Harvard economist Jason Furman indicates that nearly all GDP growth in the U.S. for the first half of 2025 will be driven by data centers and information processing technology, with other sectors showing a growth rate of only 0.1% [1][4] - Concerns are rising about a potential "data center bubble," as the sustainability of the business model for tech giants investing heavily in data centers remains uncertain [1][8] Investment Trends - Investment in information processing equipment and software accounted for only 4% of U.S. GDP but contributed 92% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [1][3] - Major tech companies have significantly increased capital expenditures in data centers, with spending nearly quadrupling in recent years to approximately $400 billion annually [3][7] Economic Impact - The contribution of data center-related spending to U.S. GDP growth is estimated to be around 100 basis points, highlighting its macroeconomic significance [3] - AI technology is driving an explosive demand for computing power, leading to substantial investments from companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia [3][7] Sector Performance - Other sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, retail, and services are experiencing stagnation or negative growth, raising alarms about the overall health of the U.S. economy [4][5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and a rising long-term unemployment rate [5][4] Future Outlook - The current investment in AI infrastructure is closely tied to the training of large language models, which require vast amounts of data and computing power [7] - There is skepticism regarding whether AI product revenues can sustain the rising expenditures on data centers, which could reshape the U.S. economic landscape if not supported [8][1]