乌克兰袭击成效显著俄罗斯石油危机加剧

Group 1 - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, conducting over 30 strikes since early August, leading to a significant impact on Russian oil production, which has decreased by approximately 10% [1] - Oil and gas revenues are projected to account for about 30% of the Russian budget by 2024, making it the largest source of funding for the country [2] - In response to resource shortages, Russia has restricted oil product exports until the end of the year and extended the gasoline export ban, resulting in a decline in refinery output to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day, a drop of about 400,000 barrels compared to early 2025 [3] Group 2 - The situation in Russia may worsen as damaged infrastructure typically requires a long time to restore, with analysts predicting a potential halt in all oil product exports and the implementation of domestic rationing [4] - The withdrawal of Western oil companies has significantly reduced investment in Russian energy infrastructure, limiting the potential for increased oil production in the coming years [4] - Current Russian crude oil production is approximately 9.25 million barrels per day, down from a pre-war peak of about 10 million barrels per day, with the current maximum capacity at around 9.45 million barrels per day [4]