俄印油贸人民币结算：美元霸权遇挑战

Core Insights - The event of Russia-India oil trade settlement in RMB signifies a shift towards de-dollarization and reflects the underlying currency dynamics and geopolitical strategies [3][6][7] Currency Logic - Russia's choice to settle in RMB is based on the principle of minimizing transaction costs, as the use of RMB allows for direct conversion to rubles, avoiding additional exchange costs and time delays associated with other currencies [3][5] - The share of RMB in Russia's foreign trade settlements has increased to 42% as of 2025, highlighting its growing importance in international trade for Russia [3] India's Position - India has significantly increased its oil imports from Russia, which now account for 35%-40% of its total imports, leading to savings of over $12.6 billion due to discounts [5] - India's initial attempt to settle in rupees was rejected by Russia due to liquidity issues, emphasizing the need for currency internationalization to be supported by trade surplus [5] Geopolitical Dynamics - The RMB settlement between Russia and India indicates a weakening of the "petrodollar" system, which has historically dominated global oil trade [6] - Despite U.S. pressure on India to avoid RMB settlements, the effectiveness of such pressure is diminishing, reflecting a shift in global economic power dynamics [6][7] Future Implications - The Russia-India oil trade settlement is a microcosm of the evolving global economic landscape and the ongoing de-dollarization process, suggesting that more countries may opt for non-dollar currencies in international trade [7] - The internationalization of the RMB is likely to accelerate, posing challenges to the dollar's hegemonic status in the global economy [7]