Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-10-08 14:41Core Insights - A study by Harvard economist Jason Furman indicates that nearly all GDP growth in the U.S. for the first half of 2025 will be driven by data centers and information processing technologies, with other sectors showing a growth rate of only 0.1% [1][4] - Concerns are rising about a "data center bubble," as many fear that without technological investments, the U.S. economy could face a recession [1][5] - Investment in information processing equipment and software accounted for only 4% of GDP but contributed 92% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [1][4] Investment Trends - Major tech companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures in data centers, with spending quadrupling in recent years to nearly $400 billion [4] - The top 10 companies account for nearly one-third of total spending in this area, contributing approximately 100 basis points to actual GDP growth [4] - Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia have invested hundreds of billions in building and upgrading data centers due to explosive demand for computing power driven by AI [4][8] Economic Implications - The construction of AI data centers is projected to surpass consumer spending's contribution to GDP growth for the first time, which is notable given that consumer spending typically accounts for two-thirds of U.S. GDP [4] - Other sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, retail, and services are experiencing stagnation or negative growth, raising alarms about the overall economic health [5] - The labor market is also showing signs of distress, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and a rising long-term unemployment rate [5] Funding and Financial Models - As of the end of 2024, there are 1,240 data centers either completed or approved in the U.S., a fourfold increase since 2010 [8] - Major tech firms are raising funds through various channels for data center expansion, with Oracle issuing $18 billion in bonds and Meta securing $29 billion in financing [8] - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the business model, as it remains unclear whether AI product revenues can support the rising expenditures [9]