William Blair's Dorsheimer: Tesla's stock is more aligned with robotaxis & FSD than new models

Core Insights - Tesla has introduced cheaper versions of its Model Y and Model 3 to potentially boost sales and deliveries after the expiration of the federal EV tax credit at the end of September [1][2] - The new models are seen as a demand filler, but the core auto business is still facing significant headwinds, which may limit their impact on stock performance [3][4] Pricing and Market Dynamics - The cheaper models are priced around $39,000 to $37,000, which is a reduction compared to the previous tax credit of $7,500, but may not be sufficient to stimulate demand [6][8] - A 19% drop in unit deliveries is expected for the next quarter, following a record delivery of 497,000 units last quarter [8] Margin and Profitability - The introduction of cheaper models is likely to be dilutive to margins, as the auto segment is currently valued less despite generating the most revenue [5][6] - The energy business, while only 15% of revenue, contributes to 25% of profitability, indicating a potential area for growth amidst challenges in the auto sector [10][11] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's strategy appears to pivot towards capital efficiency and autonomy, with less focus on introducing new models to compete in the traditional auto market [4][5] - The company is navigating a tougher environment, as indicated by recent comments from competitors like BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche regarding their own guidance [12]