OppFi Soars 104% in a Year: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - OppFi Inc. (OPFI) shares have increased by 104.2% over the past year, significantly outperforming its industry growth of 5.8% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 18.1% rise [1][9] - Recent performance indicates a correction phase, with OPFI shares declining by 3% in the past month, while the industry fell by 6.6% and the S&P 500 rose by 3.6% [4][22] Company Strengths - OppFi targets the underbanked population, utilizing AI and machine learning to assess credit profiles, which enhances service speed [6] - The loan auto approval rate reached 80% in Q2 2025, up from 76% in the previous year, and a Net Promoter Score of 79 indicates strong customer satisfaction [7] - The Net Charge-Off (NCO) rate has decreased, with a notable drop of 400 basis points to 42% in Q4 2024, and further declines of 700 bps and 300 bps in subsequent quarters, showcasing effective risk management [8][10] Valuation and Liquidity - OppFi's stock is trading at 6.91 times forward earnings, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.2 times, indicating a potentially attractive investment opportunity [11] - The trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 4.55 times, below the industry average of 12.12 times, suggesting growth potential [11] - The current ratio improved to 1.72 in Q2 2025 from 1.57 a year ago, surpassing the industry average of 1.17, indicating strong short-term obligation coverage [14] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects OPFI's 2025 revenues at $588.9 million, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, with earnings per share expected to rise by 49.5% [16] Challenges - The core business model involves lending to subprime borrowers, which carries inherent credit default risks, with 28% of consumers in the 580-669 credit score range likely to become seriously delinquent [17] - Competition in the fintech market is intensifying, with threats from companies like SoFi and Dave, which may attract customers away from OppFi [18][19] Strategic Positioning - OppFi's customer-centric strategy leverages AI and ML to manage credit risk while meeting customer demand, positioning the company favorably despite market challenges [20] - The liquidity position and strong revenue and earnings outlook contribute to a positive assessment of the stock, although credit risks and competition remain concerns [21]