A股：大家要准备好，节后第一周，股市很有可能要这样走

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a positive trend in the first trading week after the National Day holiday, with historical data indicating a high probability of gains due to factors such as capital inflow, favorable policies, and market sentiment [1][3]. Market Performance - Historical data shows that since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 10 out of 15 post-National Day trading weeks, with a notable inverse relationship between pre- and post-holiday performance [3]. - The index closed at 3882.78 points before the holiday, just 17 points shy of the previous high of 3899 points, indicating a potential breakout opportunity [1]. Sector Analysis - Leading sectors post-holiday are likely to align with strong performances in overseas markets during the holiday, particularly in technology and AI-related stocks [3]. - Energy metals and lithium sectors, which were active before the holiday, may continue to perform well [3]. Policy Environment - The People's Bank of China announced a significant liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos, alongside a new round of consumption subsidies totaling 69 billion yuan, effective until the end of 2025 [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Liquidity and Technical Analysis - Expectations for liquidity easing have strengthened, with a record financing balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan before the holiday [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a potential breakout above the 3899-point resistance level if brokerage stocks lead the charge [5]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is currently high, with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 16 consecutive trading days before the holiday [7]. - However, a decline in trading volume post-holiday could lead to differentiation among previously favored technology stocks, particularly those lacking earnings support [7]. Institutional Outlook - Most institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the first week post-holiday, citing manageable external risks and positive policy signals [9]. - Strategies suggest maintaining a moderate stock position to capitalize on potential liquidity-driven market movements while being prepared to adjust holdings dynamically [9][10].