中国订单归零，特朗普全球找买家，却又收到一个坏消息

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing a historic crisis due to the absence of new orders from Chinese buyers, who previously accounted for over half of U.S. soybean exports, leading to a stockpile of over 7 million tons and prices dropping below production costs [1][3] - The crisis originated from the trade tariff policies, with U.S. tariffs on soybeans reaching 245%, making U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, resulting in a drastic drop in U.S. soybean imports by China to a five-year low [3][5] - Brazil is capitalizing on the market opportunity, with a projected increase in soybean exports to China, while Argentina is enhancing its sorghum export standards to meet Chinese quality expectations, further solidifying South America's position in the global agricultural supply chain [5][7] Summary by Sections U.S. Soybean Market Crisis - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing unprecedented market conditions, with no orders from China compared to 13 million tons ordered last year [1] - The U.S. soybean futures price has fallen 40% over three years, currently at $10.10 per bushel, below the estimated production cost of $11.03 per bushel [3] Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. tariffs on soybeans have led to a significant decline in imports from the U.S. by China, with a 40% increase in Brazilian exports to China during the same period [3][5] - The U.S. government is attempting to mitigate the impact through subsidies and seeking new buyers, but these efforts have had limited success [3][5] South America's Growing Influence - Brazil's agricultural sector is thriving, with a forecasted soybean import of 74.65 million tons by China in 2024, representing over 70% of China's total imports [5] - Argentina's new sorghum export standards are aimed at enhancing trade with China, reflecting a strategic shift in the agricultural export landscape [5][7] Broader Agricultural Industry Effects - The crisis is affecting the entire agricultural supply chain in the U.S., with a 40% decline in soybean throughput at Mississippi River ports and over 30% idle rates in storage companies [7] - The U.S. soybean inventory-to-consumption ratio is projected to rise to 18.7% in 2024, the highest in nearly a decade, indicating a lack of domestic demand to offset export losses [7][8]