美元霸权裂缝渐开，美国收割世界经济术穷矣！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global economic landscape due to the U.S.'s unilateral trade policies and the resulting shift in alliances, particularly in the agricultural sector, highlighting the challenges faced by American soybean farmers as traditional markets, especially China, withdraw from purchasing. Group 1: Unilateral Tariffs and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's return to power marked a shift towards a resource-extraction model, using tariffs as a tool against both adversaries and allies, which has led to economic pressures domestically [3][5] - The U.S. GDP experienced a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, marking its first contraction in three years, largely attributed to a 4.83 percentage point drop in net exports due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy [5] - Yale University research indicates that full implementation of tariff policies could raise prices by 2.3%, increasing annual household spending by nearly $3,800, contradicting claims that tariffs protect the economy [5] Group 2: Dollar Dominance and Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. dollar's dominance allows the U.S. to leverage global economic benefits, as most commodities are traded in dollars, giving the U.S. significant influence in the financial system [7] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2027, public debt could exceed 106% of GDP, breaking records set in 1946 [9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes lead to capital returning to the U.S., putting pressure on emerging economies through currency devaluation and capital outflows [9] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Challenges - The U.S. government may need to allocate an additional $10 to $14 billion in agricultural subsidies to prevent widespread farm bankruptcies, as China, a major buyer of U.S. soybeans, has ceased orders [11][13] - In the first eight months of 2025, China purchased only about 20 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, less than one-fifth of the previous year's volume [13] - American farmers are seeking alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Africa, but these markets are smaller and less lucrative compared to China [13] Group 4: Global Response and Trade Reconfiguration - Countries are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, with the internationalization of the yuan gaining momentum, particularly in energy transactions [15][17] - Australia has begun using the yuan for iron ore transactions, reflecting a shift away from dollar dependency, while Southeast Asian nations are also exploring direct currency settlements with China [17] - Traditional U.S. allies are reassessing their economic ties, with Germany's Hamburg port seeing a 11.3% increase in container throughput with China, while shipments to the U.S. dropped by 19% [19][21] Group 5: Structural Economic Issues in the U.S. - The U.S. economy suffers from structural imbalances, characterized by high consumption, high debt, and low savings, leading to a reliance on imports and a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [23][25] - The U.S. has seen a significant shift towards a virtual economy, with financial assets expanding excessively, while the focus on short-term gains detracts from long-term industrial health [25] - In contrast, China is transitioning to a growth model driven by domestic demand and innovation, reducing its reliance on exports [25]