关税战反转，中国反制见效，美国经济遭遇新难题

Core Viewpoint - The trade war, initially aimed at making America great again, has led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, ultimately harming the American economy and its industries [1][9]. Economic Impact - Consumers are feeling the pinch as prices rise due to tariffs, referred to as "tariff surcharges," which ultimately burden ordinary people [1]. - The Consumer Confidence Index is declining, reflecting growing anxiety among the public about economic conditions [3]. - American farmers, particularly soybean producers, have suffered significantly as China has shifted its purchases to South America, leading to a permanent loss of market share [5]. Industry Shifts - Iconic American brands like Harley-Davidson have relocated parts of their production overseas to avoid tariffs, indicating a shift in manufacturing strategies [5]. - Other American products, such as bourbon and wine, are losing market share to foreign competitors due to tariffs, which can lead to lasting changes in consumer preferences [7]. Global Reactions - The European Union has responded to U.S. tariffs with its own countermeasures, further complicating international trade relationships [7]. - Wall Street has reacted negatively, with fund managers selling off U.S. stocks, leading to declines in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds [9]. Manufacturing and Employment - Despite the intention to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., companies are relocating to countries like Vietnam and Mexico instead, resulting in no significant job growth in the U.S. [10]. - The costs of goods have increased due to disrupted supply chains, leading to higher management complexities and hidden costs for American businesses [10]. Renewable Energy Sector - Tariffs on solar panels and batteries from China have raised costs for solar energy projects in the U.S., delaying or canceling many initiatives [12]. - This contradiction undermines the U.S. government's push for a green transition while protecting outdated industries [12]. Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecast for the U.S., indicating severe repercussions from the trade policies [14]. - An economist has predicted a 65% chance of the U.S. economy entering a recession, highlighting the potential long-term damage from the trade war [15].