若不出意外，2026年，国内或将爆发这5大变化，提前了解不吃亏

Group 1: Population Trends - The birth rate in China is projected to decline significantly, with an expected 8.25 million births in 2024, down by 430,000 from 2023, and potentially dropping to around 7.5 million by 2026, indicating a long-term low fertility rate trend [2][5] - Factors contributing to this trend include rising costs of housing, education, and healthcare, changing values among young people prioritizing personal development, and increased educational and career aspirations among women [2][3] Group 2: Economic Environment - Deposit interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling to 1.5% in June 2025, down from 2.5% in 2015, leading to a near-zero or negative real interest rate when adjusted for inflation [4] - The proportion of bank deposits in urban households fell below 45% for the first time in early 2025, while investment products rose to 32%, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [4] Group 3: Entrepreneurship and Rural Development - The number of returnees starting businesses in rural areas reached 8.76 million in 2024, a 17.3% increase year-on-year, with growth accelerating to 22.1% in the first half of 2025 [8][9] - Improved rural infrastructure, increased internet coverage, and the rise of digital economy models like e-commerce are facilitating this trend, making rural entrepreneurship more viable [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a rational adjustment, with national sales area down by 6.3% and sales value down by 8.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift away from the expectation of continuously rising prices [14] - The market is expected to continue this rational trend into 2026, with significant differentiation between first-tier cities and those experiencing population outflows [14][15] Group 5: Employment Landscape - The job market is becoming increasingly competitive, particularly for individuals over 35, with the preference for candidates under 35 rising from 37% in 2020 to 52% in 2025 [19] - The average interview success rate for job seekers over 35 is 23.7% lower than for younger candidates, highlighting the challenges faced by older workers in the current job market [19][20]