Where Will LLY Be in 5 Years?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's share prices experienced significant growth in 2023 and 2024 due to excitement over GLP-1 diabetes and weight loss therapies, but have since stabilized between $700 and $900 since mid-2024 [2][9] - Valuation concerns, with a forward P/E ratio of around 27, have contributed to the stock's performance, especially when compared to Novo Nordisk's P/E of 14 [3] - Despite current valuation concerns, there is potential for the stock to catch up over the next five years [4] Revenue and Growth Drivers - Lilly's GLP-1 medication, tirzepatide, has been a key revenue driver, generating $5.3 billion in 2023 and projected to reach $16.5 billion in 2024 [6] - Sales for tirzepatide in the first half of 2025 totaled $14.7 billion, with forecasts predicting annual sales to exceed $62 billion in five years [7] - The company is also developing orforglipron, a promising obesity treatment, expected to generate $12.7 billion in annual sales by 2030 [8] Future Outlook - The stock price has remained stable, but sales from diabetes and obesity treatments are anticipated to grow rapidly [9] - While the premium valuation may decrease, further earnings growth could lead to substantial returns over the next five years [9]