浙商证券:焦煤反弹、进口量显著回升 蒙煤进口产业链拐点来临
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-08 22:53

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the import volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded in Q3, leading to a recovery in supply chain trade profits as prices have increased [1][5]. Group 1: Coal Price and Trade Profit - In Q3, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profit margin for trade enterprises has improved [2][5]. - The profit margin for Jiao You International's coking coal supply chain trade is approximately 58 CNY/ton, primarily driven by logistics services, while trade segment profits have been largely squeezed [1][2]. - Jiao You International achieved a sales volume of 3.4 million tons of Mongolian coal in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 15%, increasing its market share at the Ganqimaodu port to 20% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand for coking coal are expected to remain tight, providing support for prices [3][5]. - Domestic iron and steel production remains high, with an average daily output of approximately 2.42 million tons from 247 sample steel mills, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3]. - The coal inventory at Ganqimaodu port was approximately 2.88 million tons as of September 25, a decrease of 112 tons from the end of Q2 [3]. Group 3: Import Volume and Transportation Costs - The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has turned positive year-on-year in Q3, with significant increases in transportation volume at Ganqimaodu port [4][5]. - The average price of Mongolian raw coal at Ganqimaodu port was approximately 920 CNY/ton as of September 29, an increase of 134 CNY/ton from the previous quarter [2]. - Short-distance transportation costs have risen, with the average price in Q3 increasing by about 4% compared to Q2 [4].