凌晨！美联储，降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others foresee only one or no cuts through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the majority of officials agree that the recent slowdown in job growth is more significant than persistent high inflation, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first cut of the year [2]. - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the dissenting vote from Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Investors widely anticipate another 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a 94.6% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The minutes highlight concerns among officials regarding the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, with some fearing that maintaining current interest rates for too long could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in the housing sector [6]. - Officials are worried about inflation remaining above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with concerns that businesses and consumers may become accustomed to higher price growth, potentially keeping inflation around 3% [7]. - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions, with officials acknowledging the dual risks of high rates leading to job weakness and excessive cuts causing inflation to rebound [7][8]. Group 3: Data Limitations and Decision-Making Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions at the upcoming meeting [8]. - The absence of official data on inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending means that Fed officials may have to rely on private sector data and feedback from businesses regarding pricing and hiring [8].