疯涨！金价持续上涨的原因是什么？

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been rising significantly, reaching historical highs during the National Day holiday, with COMEX gold futures hitting $4000.1 per ounce and spot gold at $3958.71 per ounce [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 7, 2023, the price of gold jewelry in China has also increased, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price rising to 1155 yuan per gram, up 26 yuan from 1129 yuan on October 1 [2][3]. - The demand for investment gold has surged, with reports indicating that gold bars sold out quickly at 877 yuan per gram, leaving only panda gold coins available [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Predictions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, marking a 40,000-ounce increase from August and the 11th consecutive month of accumulation [2]. - Analysts expect continued upward momentum for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting that central banks in emerging markets will increase gold holdings, forecasting an average purchase of 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, raising the 2026 gold price forecast to $4900 per ounce [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold bull market is attributed to factors such as potential U.S. government shutdowns and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which are driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4][5]. - Analysts from West Securities suggest that the ongoing expansion of dollar credit cracks will lead to a long-term bull market for gold, with the current phase being the early stage of a third wave of upward movement [5]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for gold prices, with potential implications for increased private investment in gold, further amplifying price increases [6].