一片看空声中，美元的“意外反弹”正在进行中

Core Insights - A potential dollar rebound is emerging against the backdrop of widespread market expectations for a weaker dollar, driven by signals from the yen, euro, and options markets [1] Group 1: Yen Dynamics - The yen's recent performance is breaking historical norms, as it has not recovered from a significant drop at the start of the week, marking the longest consecutive rise for the dollar against the yen this year [2] - Market sentiment is pressured by Japan's wage growth slowing to its lowest level in three months, prompting investors to adjust their positions [2] Group 2: Euro Weakness - Political risks in France, particularly following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Le Maire, have led to a significant decline in the euro's upward momentum [3] - The market's short positions on the euro have reached a one-month high, indicating a loss of investor confidence and a shift in market narratives [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The dollar is gaining support from domestic factors, as several Federal Reserve officials have publicly countered aggressive rate cut expectations, bolstering the dollar's position [4] - The unexpected impact of the U.S. government shutdown and delays in economic data releases has also contributed to the dollar's strength, contrary to typical trends during such events [4][5]