中州期货：钢材价格有望小幅上涨

Domestic Market - During the National Day holiday, the real estate market showed significant recovery due to various positive news, with increased promotional efforts from property developers leading to higher transaction volumes in several cities [1] - In cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan, developers offered special discounts and subsidies, resulting in a surge in visitor and transaction numbers, with Shenzhen's Longgang district seeing a 40%-50% increase in visitor and transaction volumes compared to normal days [1] - According to data from CRIC, financing for property companies continued to contract, with Q3 financing at 114.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 35% decrease year-on-year [1] Overseas Market - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 94.1%, with a very low chance of maintaining rates unchanged [2] - Starting November 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported from other countries, which is expected to have a limited impact on China's heavy truck exports [2] - The EU plans to reduce steel import quotas and impose a 50% tariff, but this is also expected to have a limited effect on China's steel exports, which primarily go to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2] Spot Market - During the National Day holiday, domestic construction steel prices remained stable, with Tangshan steel billet prices stabilizing at 2,950 yuan/ton [3] - Trade sentiment among merchants was cautious, with limited transactions and most traders refraining from quoting prices [3] - Overall, while real estate sales data showed improvement, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain, and the steel industry remains in a phase of capacity reduction, with increased steel exports potentially alleviating domestic oversupply [3]