Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-09 00:45Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a complete domestic AI industry chain and the influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, with a long-term bullish trend anticipated to continue into 2024 despite short-term geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - During the National Day holiday from October 2-6, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, continuing the upward trend since September 5 [2] - Historically, the Hang Seng Index has averaged a 2.2% increase during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024, with the AH premium index averaging a contraction of 2.6% [2] - The average decline of the Hang Seng Index on the first trading day after the holiday is 1.5%, while the CSI 300 has an average increase of 0.9%, indicating a potential for A-shares to catch up post-holiday [2] Group 2: Liquidity and Investment Trends - Despite a 19% month-on-month decline in net inflows for Hong Kong ETFs in September, the total net inflow reached 172.7 billion yuan, the second highest since January 2021 [4] - The expectation of continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks is supported by low yields on financial products and money market funds, alongside a persistent "profit-making effect" in the market [4] - The correlation between the Hang Seng Tech Index and the USD/JPY exchange rate has turned positive, indicating potential benefits for Hong Kong stocks from Japanese investors' arbitrage activities [4] Group 3: AI Innovation and Investment - Major Chinese companies like Alibaba and Baidu are increasingly using self-designed chips for AI model training, reducing reliance on Nvidia chips [5] - Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are significantly increasing their capital expenditures in AI, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan over three years [5] - The ongoing capital investments by U.S. tech giants in AI may lead to negative free cash flow for some companies, reflecting a global demand for AI investments [5] Group 4: Earnings Expectations - The net profit growth forecast for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index for 2026 is 8.4% and 28.1% respectively, indicating strong global attractiveness [7] - Recent weeks have shown signs of stabilization in profit expectations for various sectors, including gaming, biotech, and software, suggesting potential benefits from valuation adjustments in the fourth quarter [7] - The dynamic PE ratios for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index are currently at 12.1x and 22.3x, indicating that while valuations may not appear cheap, there is still room for expansion due to liquidity and AI catalysts [8]