假期外盘金属表现优异 分析人士：有色板块或迎来一波补涨行情

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, driven by macroeconomic expectations and supply disruptions, with significant price increases observed in various metals [1][5][9]. Price Movements - During the holiday period, LME copper rose by 3.54%, tin by 4.06%, nickel by 1.74%, aluminum by 2.96%, and zinc by 0.98% [1][3]. - Specific price changes as of October 8 include: - CMX gold: 4014 (up 3.35%) - CMX silver: 47.715 (up 1.60%) - Copper: 10742 (up 3.54%) - Aluminum: 2743.5 (up 2.96%) - Tin: 36520 (up 4.06%) [3]. Supply Disruptions - Significant supply disruptions have been reported, including a 9.9% year-on-year decrease in Chile's copper production in August, marking the largest drop in over two years [5][6]. - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has ceased operations, exacerbating the global copper supply shortage [6][9]. - Other supply issues include the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia and a withdrawal of annual zinc production guidance by 29Metals due to seismic events [5][7]. Demand Dynamics - Overall demand for non-ferrous metals remains weak, with a "peak season not booming" characteristic observed [8]. - Although China's manufacturing PMI showed some recovery in September, the improvement in production outpaced demand, particularly affecting copper and tin prices [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is expected to experience a rebound post-holiday, with potential for significant price increases in copper, aluminum, and tin [9]. - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for continued price increases in non-ferrous metals, although the pace may vary across different metals [9][10].