AMD(US:AMD) The Economic Times·2025-10-09 00:25Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index has surged 35% since its April 8 low, driven by easing trade tensions, corporate resilience, and strong demand, particularly in AI sectors, leading to 32 all-time highs this year [1][13]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's recent rally has historically indicated positive performance for the remainder of the year, with an average gain of 4.8% in the fourth quarter following record highs in September [1][14]. - The Cboe VIX Index is currently around 17, below its long-term average, indicating low market anxiety [3][14]. - The S&P 500 has not experienced a 1% move in either direction for 31 sessions, marking the longest period since 2020 [4][14]. Economic Indicators - Expectations for S&P 500 profits in Q3 are projected to grow by 7.2% year-over-year, the third-highest pre-season forecast in the last four years, which could create volatility if results do not meet expectations [8][14]. - Concerns exist regarding the impact of President Trump's tariff policies, including a new 25% duty on medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1, which may affect corporate earnings [7][14]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, is showing signs of overvaluation, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF's relative strength index near its highest level since 2017, suggesting a potential decline [10][14]. - Short-covering has been a significant factor in recent market movements, with a Goldman Sachs basket of the most-shorted stocks rising 15% since the Fed's rate cut on September 17, outperforming the S&P 500 [12][14]. Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about a potential selloff, some investors remain optimistic, planning to buy on dips, indicating a belief that the bull market is not over [13][14].