Freeport-McMoRan(US:FCX) 智通财经网·2025-10-09 01:04Group 1 - Citi upgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to supply chain disruptions and favorable macroeconomic factors expected to drive copper prices to historical highs in the next 18 months [1] - Citi forecasts copper prices to reach $12,000 per ton by mid-2026, supported by unprecedented mine shutdowns, strong market demand, and macro trends such as U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - The recent market sell-off triggered by the Grasberg mine incident has led to Freeport-McMoRan being undervalued compared to peers, creating a "rare opportunity" for investors [1] Group 2 - Citi acknowledges that the recovery time for Grasberg's production may exceed official guidance, with a model predicting a nearly 50% reduction in output by 2026, although the ore body structure remains intact [1] - The market's concerns about risks have been overly reflected in the stock price discount, with estimates suggesting that even a two-year shutdown would only decrease the company's net asset value (NAV) by about 15% [1] - Freeport-McMoRan's U.S. operations have growth potential due to improved production efficiency and potential tariffs on refined copper imports, which could enhance company profitability [1] Group 3 - Citi maintains a "Sell" rating on Southern Copper (SCCO.US) due to overvaluation, while keeping "Buy" ratings on First Quantum and Ivanhoe Mines, and a "Neutral" rating on Teck Resources (TECK.US) [2] - Citi's basic forecast indicates that copper supply shortages will ease post-2026 with increased production from Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and other major projects, yet remains optimistic about Freeport-McMoRan's performance [2] - The company's stock is expected to outperform the market as investor confidence in its recovery plan strengthens and its position as the largest publicly traded copper mining company solidifies [2]