海外市场遇“多事之秋”，节后A股如何走

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market has experienced significant fluctuations during the recent holiday, with global asset performance diverging, particularly highlighted by a surge in gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and a general rise in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overseas stock markets showed a strong overall trend during the holiday, with major indices in the Asia-Pacific region leading gains, such as the Nikkei 225 rising over 6% and the KOSPI increasing more than 3% [3]. - The U.S. stock market also saw slight increases in major indices, including the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices, which began in the fourth week of August, is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, increased uncertainty in U.S. policies, and central bank gold purchases [3]. - Key supporting factors for gold prices include high fiscal deficit rates in major economies, structural demand from central bank purchases, and the trend towards diversified asset allocation due to global macroeconomic uncertainties [3]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Various brokerages have differing views on the A-share market's performance post-holiday, with some expecting a high probability of an upward opening, while others anticipate a likely oscillating market [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment before the holiday was moderately optimistic, with high margin trading balances indicating bullish expectations for the post-holiday market [4]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is identified as a primary driver of market performance, supported by weak macroeconomic data in the U.S. that bolsters expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals [3]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see a rotation within the technology sector, focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence, chips, and robotics, despite potential disruptions from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical risks [6][7]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Recommendations for investment strategies include increasing allocations in brokerage stocks with rebound potential and closely monitoring the real estate sector, which has shown stable performance and positive news recently [7]. - For the A-share index, strategies suggest buying on dips if the index approaches the lower end of the oscillation range, maintaining a medium to long-term bullish outlook [5][7].